Discipline
over noise.
Five principles govern every allocation. They are deliberately few, so that they can actually be applied under pressure.
Conviction
We allocate where we believe the underlying thesis is stronger than the prevailing market narrative. Conviction is measurable: it is the gap between our estimate of value and the price being quoted.
— A thesis that only works if everyone already agrees with it is not a thesis.
Discipline
Every allocation begins with a defined thesis, a risk framework, and a time horizon. All three are written down before capital moves, and reviewed on a fixed schedule rather than when the price moves.
— Process is what remains when the market removes your confidence.
Asymmetry
We look for positions where the downside is understood and bounded, and the upside is allowed to compound. Symmetric bets are a fee we pay to look busy.
— Understood downside is worth more than forecast upside.
Long-term thinking
Most market information is noise with a timestamp. We deliberately reduce our sampling rate: fewer decisions, longer horizons, less turnover.
— The horizon is the one edge that cannot be bought.
Capital efficiency
Capital is finite. Every allocation competes against every other allocation, including cash and including Bitcoin. A position is only held while it remains the best available use of that capital.
— Holding is a decision, repeated daily.
Research, thesis, allocation, risk, execution, review.
What is happening, and what does the market believe is happening?
Written: what must be true, the horizon, and the falsifying condition.
Size derived from the risk frame, not from the strength of the view.
Maximum loss defined per position and at portfolio level before entry.
Entered in tranches. Liquidity and slippage treated as part of the cost.
Scheduled review against the original thesis. Drift is closed, not rationalised.
Fig 1. Allocation process. Each stage can return capital to the previous one.
Risk is defined before entry, not discovered after.
Position limits, portfolio-level loss limits, and liquidity requirements are set in advance. Treasury holdings are excluded from trading limits and are never used as collateral.